What A Trump Victory Means For Chinas Clean Tech Industry?

November 23, 2024 by Krishna Patel

Table of Contents

Donald Trump Victory re-election as US President could change the clean tech and renewable energy world. His views on fossil fuels and cars might slow down the shift to electric vehicles in China. This victory will also affect global trade, climate goals, and clean energy plans.

Key Takeaways

Trump’s re-election could lead to a 5% decline in EV sales in the US by 2034 compared to a Harris-victory scenario.
Proposed tariffs on Chinese and other imports may disrupt the battery raw materials market.
Uncertainty in the lithium market due to Trump’s stance on EVs, potentially impacting prices.
Trump’s policies could add 4 billion tonnes of emissions by 2030 compared to Biden’s plans.
US leadership, or lack thereof, can influence other countries’ emissions targets and climate cooperation.

Trump’s Policy Shift Impact on EV Markets

Donald Trump’s win as the 45th President of the United States could change the electric vehicle (EV) market a lot. Experts think EV sales might drop and clean energy policies could slow down under Trump.

Projected Sales Decline in US Electric Vehicles

Fastmarkets predicts a 5% drop in US EV sales by 2034 if Trump wins. This is compared to a 5% increase if President Harris had won. The drop is due to possible cuts in federal tax credits and other incentives that help EVs sell well.

Changes to Environmental Protection Agency Rules

The Trump team might change the EPA’s 2027 emissions rules. This could make it harder for the US to reach its goal of 50% EVs by 2030. Such changes could slow down the EV market growth in the US, affecting its global share.

Impact on Global EV Market Share

The US EV market might shrink, but its global impact is expected to be small. This is because the US market is small compared to China and Europe’s growing EV markets. Still, US policy changes could affect the global EV industry and market.

The lithium market, key for EV batteries, might see little impact from US policy changes. Yet, the EV industry and clean energy fans worldwide will watch Trump’s policies closely.

Automaker	EV Sales Impact
GM	Potential Beneficiary
Ford	Potential Beneficiary
Stellantis	Potential Beneficiary
Rivian	Potential Challenges
Lucid	Potential Challenges
Tesla	Potential Beneficiary

The 2020 US presidential election and its policy changes will deeply affect the EV industry. They will shape the future of green transport in the US and worldwide.

Trump Victory Effects on Trade Relations

The U.S. presidential election outcome has big trade policy implications, especially for U.S.-China relations. President Trump’s trade stance could lead to higher tariffs on Chinese goods, up to 60%. This could greatly affect the U.S. market for Chinese electric vehicles, battery materials, and clean tech.

Current tariffs on lithium-ion cells (25%) and EVs (100%) might increase. This could be tough for Chinese makers. Also, Chinese companies in Mexico or other countries aiming at the U.S. market could face new tariffs. This could change the global supply chain for clean tech.

Trump proposed taxes of 10% to 20% on all foreign goods, which could raise global prices.
BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen shares fell 5% to 7% after Trump’s win. The U.S. is a key market for German carmakers.
The IMF said a big trade war could cut the world economy by 7%. That’s like France and Germany’s economies combined.

These trade policy changes could block Chinese clean tech companies from the U.S. market. They might need to change their plans to deal with these new challenges. This could affect their business and profits.

“Trump has suggested imposing a blanket 20% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S., with a tariff of up to 60% for Chinese products and one as high as 2,000% on vehicles built in Mexico.”

Experts say universal tariffs could make things more expensive for consumers and slow spending. This could affect the clean tech industry and the global economy a lot.

Inflation Reduction Act Uncertainties and Clean Energy

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has been a big help for the clean energy world. It offers important tax credits and incentives. But, with former President Trump’s win, there’s worry about the IRA’s future. Even if the IRA won’t be completely undone, changes under Trump could make it harder for companies to get these key subsidies.

Potential Changes to Tax Credits and Subsidies

With the IRA’s future up in the air, companies are playing it safe. They’re not rushing to invest in new facilities or grow their current ones. This is because they’re worried about changes to the tax credits and subsidies that have helped the clean energy sector grow.

Impact on Battery Supply Chain Development

Changes under Trump could also affect where companies choose to set up shop. Places like Germany might become less attractive compared to China and Indonesia. This could really shake up the battery supply chain as companies weigh the pros and cons of different locations.

Manufacturing Incentives Restructuring

Trump’s win might also mean big changes for incentives to make clean energy tech in the U.S. This could add more uncertainty for companies wanting to invest in new facilities or grow in the U.S.

“The clean energy industry grew by double digits each year under the first Trump Administration, and they will be watching closely to see what changes a second Trump term might bring.”

– American Clean Power Association

Chinese Manufacturing and Export Challenges

Donald Trump’s win as U.S. president brings big challenges for Chinese makers and their exports. His protectionist plans, like stricter rules on Chinese investments, could change a lot. This could affect how Chinese goods are sold in the U.S.

One big worry is how Trump’s actions might hurt Chinese exports to the U.S. He wants to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, which could make things harder for Chinese exports. These exports are a big part of China’s economy. Also, Trump has already blocked many Chinese companies from buying American products.

The manufacturing sector in China might struggle, especially with battery materials like cobalt and fluorspar. Higher tariffs could hurt Chinese and Indonesian cobalt producers. It might stop U.S. imports of Chinese cobalt. Fluorspar, used in battery electrolytes, could also see price increases, affecting China’s market.

Chinese battery projects in the U.S. might face problems under Trump. The lithium market could also see short-term issues because of Trump’s views on electric vehicles.

Metric	Impact
Tariffs on Chinese Goods	Potential for 60% or higher blanket tariffs on Chinese goods
Restrictions on Chinese Companies	Over 300 Chinese companies added to the “Entity List”
Chinese Battery Material Exports	Potential challenges for cobalt and fluorspar exports
Chinese Battery Projects in the U.S.	Difficulties for equity and licensing agreements
Lithium Market	Short-term headwinds due to Trump’s stance on EVs

Donald Trump’s win as U.S. president is a big challenge for Chinese makers and exporters. The sectors of battery materials and electric vehicles are especially at risk. Higher tariffs, less market access, and stricter rules could harm China’s trade and economic ties with the U.S.

Also Read: Prosecutors Request Delay In Donald Trump Hush Money Sentencing But Oppose Case Dismissal.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s re-election has brought big questions for China’s clean tech and global renewable energy. His policies might change how electric vehicles and clean energy grow. This could affect the Inflation Reduction Act, environmental rules, and trade.

Some areas might see benefits from Trump’s plans. But, the big worry is how it will hit China’s clean tech and global climate goals. The next few months are key. We’ll see what Trump’s team does and if China will step up to help.

The mix of economic needs and green goals will be a big test. How well the US and China handle this will shape the future of clean tech worldwide.

FAQs

Q: What would a Trump victory in the 2024 presidential election mean for China’s clean tech industry?

A: A Trump win could lead to changes in foreign policy that might impact the clean tech industry in China. It could involve increased tariffs or restrictions on imports, which may affect China’s ability to compete in global markets.

Q: How might election night results influence the future of clean technology in China?

A: The election result could signal a shift in U.S. policies towards China, particularly in the clean tech sector. If Trump were to return to the White House, his administration may prioritize American energy independence over cooperation with China.

Q: What are the potential implications for the Biden administration if Trump wins the 2024 election?

A: A Trump victory would likely undermine the Biden administration’s current clean energy initiatives and could lead to a rollback of policies aimed at fostering cooperation with China in clean technology.

Q: How did Trump’s previous presidency impact the clean tech industry in China?

A: During Trump’s first term, there was a focus on reducing reliance on foreign technology, which included imposing tariffs on Chinese goods. This approach could resurface if he secures a second term.

Q: How might the 2024 presidential race affect international investments in clean tech?

A: The political comeback of Donald Trump could lead to uncertainty in international investments, as foreign investors may hesitate to invest in China’s clean tech sector due to potential U.S. sanctions or trade restrictions.

Q: What role does party identification play in shaping policies toward China’s clean tech industry?

A: The Republican party, under Trump, may adopt a more confrontational stance towards China, potentially affecting clean tech collaborations and investments, contrasting with a more cooperative approach typically favored by the Democrats.

Q: Could a second Trump term lead to changes in the U.S. stance on climate agreements?

A: Yes, if Trump were to win, he may withdraw the U.S. from international climate agreements that encourage collaboration with China, which could hinder progress in global clean technology initiatives.

Q: How does Trump’s foreign policy vision affect the U.S.-China relationship in clean tech?

A: Trump’s foreign policy often emphasizes competition over cooperation, which could result in stricter controls on technology transfer and increased tariffs, significantly impacting China’s clean tech growth.

Q: What might be the consequences of a Trump election victory on the global clean energy market?

A: A Trump win could lead to a more fragmented global clean energy market, where U.S. policies favor domestic over international partnerships, potentially isolating China from key technology exchanges.

Q: How does the outcome of the 2024 election affect the perception of China’s technological capabilities?

A: Depending on the election result, particularly if Trump wins, the narrative surrounding China’s technological advancements in clean tech could shift, possibly portraying them as competitors rather than collaborators in the global market.

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